Statistics research and deployment lab

Statistics for data that never line up.

Black Quantum is a statistics research and deployment lab. Almost everything we measure is recorded on its own irregular clock, and when you ask how two such signals move together, classical methods quietly fail. We build estimators that work on the clocks you actually observed: provable, replicable, and fast enough to run live.

clock of signal X — ticks arrive when they arrive clock of signal Y — a different, irregular clock
Two signals, each on its own clock. The shaded columns are the overlaps of their observation intervals: the structure our estimators condition on.

The standard fix is to force both signals onto a shared clock: interpolate, bin, resample. That one step injects bias that no amount of data removes. We work directly on the observed clocks instead, and the bias never enters.

Problems

The failure first, then the method

We pick problems the way the best labs do: each one matters on its own, and each one exercises the same root idea, so a solution travels. Every problem gets its own page, its own data, and one figure that shows the failure before any method appears.

Why it matters

The same problem, across science

Asynchronous observation is not a finance quirk. It is the default condition of measurement, and the same broken workaround, force a shared clock and hope, sits at the foundation of field after field.

Climate science

Proxy records

Ice cores, sediments, and tree rings are sampled at irregular depths, and even the timestamps are uncertain. Correlating two proxies is a known minefield.

Today: interpolate onto shared age models; bias compounds with dating error.
Astronomy

Light curves

Reverberation mapping and multiwavelength time-lags need the covariance of two unevenly sampled light curves from telescopes that observe when they can.

Today: interpolated cross-correlation functions, which reintroduce the same bias.
Clinical medicine

Health records

Labs are drawn sporadically, vitals frequently. The coupling between them carries clinical signal, but the sampling is fully asynchronous.

Today: impute-then-model, which sidesteps the dependence structure rather than estimating it.
Digital health

Wearables

Glucose every five minutes, heart rate every second, motion at 50 Hz. The cross-signal coupling is the product, and it is measured off-clock.

Today: resample-and-correlate; "weak, not significant" may be an artifact.
Genomics

Single-cell dynamics

Sequencing destroys the cell, so no cell is seen twice and time itself is reconstructed. Gene-to-gene dynamics live on a latent, asynchronous clock.

Today: ad-hoc pseudotime binning, asynchrony plus an unobserved clock.
Distributed systems

Networked clocks

Packets are timestamped, but every machine keeps its own drifting clock. Here the twist inverts: the clock relationship itself is the unknown to estimate.

Today: NTP breaks on asymmetric paths; the shared clock is provably unrecoverable.
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Autonomous driving

Sensor fusion

Camera, LiDAR, and radar each sample the road at their own rate. No two ever capture the same instant, yet fusing them safely means reconciling all three.

Today: interpolate timestamps to force alignment; misalignment surfaces as phantom objects.
Finance

Where it was solved

High-frequency covariance under asynchronous ticks: the problem where the rigorous estimators were first built, and our home ground.

Today: solved rigorously, and so far stranded in this one field.

Some of these break new ground even for the finance toolkit: uncertain observation times in climate and networked clocks, and a latent, reconstructed clock in single-cell genomics. These are not ports of an existing method. They are open problems, and the focus of our work.

See it fail

The Epps effect, on real trades

WTI and Brent crude futures move together, their correlation at 5-minute sampling is about 0.87. Sample the same trades every two seconds instead and the estimate drops to 0.37. Nothing about the market changed. Only the clock did.

Measured correlation vs sampling interval
WTI (CL) and Brent (BZ) front-contract trades, CME Globex, 2026-05-15, previous-tick sampling
The full interactive version, with a slider, the raw price paths, and a simulated pair where the truth is known exactly, lives on the futures problem page.
Approach

How we do research

Theory first

Estimators come with proofs, not just backtests. If we can't state the assumptions, we don't trust the result.

Adversarial evaluation

Every positive result is treated as a bug until it survives walk-forward testing, leakage audits, and independent replication.

Theory to deployment

Research isn't finished at the paper. We carry methods through simulation, real data, and production infrastructure.

Formal verification

Where the mathematics matters most, we machine-check it, bringing proof assistants such as Lean into quantitative finance.

People

Who we are

Black Quantum was founded by Yang Azzollini, whose doctoral research at the University of Oxford, supervised by Brian Ripley and Peter Clifford, developed correlation methods for asynchronously observed financial data. The lab continues that programme, carrying estimation theory from its foundations through to deployed systems.

Publications

Selected work

News

From the field

  • R Core Team awarded the 2026 Rousseeuw Prize for Statistics June 2026 · The team behind the R Project, including Oxford's Professor Brian Ripley, has been honoured with the $1M Rousseeuw Prize for transforming statistical computing worldwide. Read the Oxford announcement →
Contact

Work with us

We're interested in collaborations, consulting on high-frequency statistics and neural-network systems, and conversations with people who care about getting the details right.